Low Impact

Climate Change is a global problem, but it will have local impacts

We’ve all heard the predictions of how climate change could impact the planet over the years ahead. The number of heatwave days will increase by a certain amount. The average global temperature will increase by a certain number of degrees. The average sea level will rise by a certain number of centimetres…or metres.

We read these statistics, and we recognise that they’re bad. But it can be hard to relate those abstract numbers to our day-to-day existence. The numbers are global, but our daily experiences are local.

An interesting development is that of “integrated assessments” for local regions and communities. The idea is straightforward enough. Take the projections of the climate change models, and apply them to a local region. Rather than broad statements, like “the global average sea level is likely to rise 50cm by 2050″, an integrated assessment for a coastal community can get more specific. For instance, a global rise of 50cm, might translate to a local rise of 70cm, and threaten one particular block of houses.

You can find a great example of this on the web at the Western Port Greenhouse Alliance (WPGA) website (http://www.wpga.org.au). The WPGA is made up of 5 Western Port councils in Victoria, and carries out projects to help the local community both adapt to and combat climate change. One of their projects has been to produce a report called “Impacts of Climate Change on Settlements in the Western Port Region - People, Property and Places”.

With the assistance of the CSIRO, as well as the private sector including a risk assessment company and a socio-economic modelling company, the WPGA has produced a 195 page report that sets out how the Western Port area can expect to be affected by climate change.

Being local, the report can spell out more precisely how the local community is likely to be affected. It identifies infrastructure like roads that could be affected by storm surges and flooding. It identifies the likely cost in lives of heat-related deaths, taking into account the expected population growth of the area. It discusses the industry sectors that could be affected by increased hot weather, reduced rainfall, storm surges and sea level rises.

This information is invaluable for local councils. Armed with this information, they can make plans for the future. Which areas should be opened up for development can be informed by the maps within the report that show areas likely to be prone to flooding. Infrastructure that needs to be secured or relocated can be identified. And local employers that may be at risk in years to come can be provided with assistance to safeguard, and adjust their businesses.

But individuals also have a lot to gain from such a report. Being informed of how your local community is likely to be affected can let you make plans for the future. If you are a small landholder, and the rainfall is forecast to drop by 25% in 2050, this may govern your choice of crops. If you live on the outskirts of town, and the days of extreme fire danger are expected to go up by 50%, you might take steps to make the family home more secure against bush fire.

More than anything though, a report like this takes climate change from being abstract to concrete. By seeing the risks that our children and local communities will face in 20, 30, 40 years time, it provides an added incentive for us to modify our lifestyles to have a lower impact on the environment.

The Western Port area isn’t alone in having such a report produced. A number of areas around the country have done similar studies, or are currently in the process. Other countries may also have such programs. If you can’t find one for your area, I’d encourage you to look at the WPGA’s report as a good example of such an assessment - perhaps you could encourage your own local government or council to do something similar?

Categories: community, education, environment, green

Tags: climate change, community