Low Impact

Dr Nelson - Leader of the Liberal Party

An update has been made to this post - see below.

It looks like hopes for bipartisan support for Australia’s proposed Emissions Trading System (ETS) are looking a little dim.

ABC News is reporting that Brendan Nelson is looking to urge the Liberal Party room to not support an ETS until the outcome of next year’s international agreement on climate change is known.

Dr Nelson’s quote from the article is:

“We are very concerned that the 2010 start up date is too soon to responsibly protect Australian jobs and Australian industries, to protect Australian households from the impact of the emissions trading scheme, and importantly to commence the scheme being informed by what the rest of the world … is actually prepared to do,”

My understanding is that Dr Nelson argues that we should hold off any emissions trading scheme until we know what other nations are going to do.

If we take this at face value - that we have no idea of what anyone is prepared to do - this doesn’t appear to be a constructive solution. It seems to be a recipe for a deadlock. If you have various countries that are considering an emissions trading scheme, and each one is waiting for the others to start first, well…..none of them will ever start!

Even without that argument, the fact is that we do know that other nations are prepared to act - it’s not a question of Australia “going it alone”. Europe has had an Emissions Trading Scheme in place since 2005. Looking ahead, the EU’s stated position at the Bali climate talks was to aim for cuts of 20% by 2020, even if noone else joins in. If other nations do step in, it is willing to lift its target to 30% cuts. Germany alone is aiming for 40% cuts.

But perhaps the biggest problem with the argument for this sort of all-or-nothing conditional emissions scheme is that it doesn’t provide a solution - only a roadblock. The proposed policy platform offers an option to opt out of combatting climate change, but no solution to help enact a global solution.

It’s very hard to approach a major emitter like China or the US, and say “please cut your emissions, and we might follow you”. It’s far more persuasive to be able to point to the actions that your nation has already taken.

Perhaps something like the EU’s stance is something that both Liberal and Labour could get behind - to enact an Emissions Trading Scheme, and to offer two targets. A certain cut to emissions if major emitters offer no concessions, and a larger cut if major emitters get on board. These cuts shouldn’t be token amount - climate change is a recognised danger, and Australia stands to lose more than most.

But implementing a scheme with a guaranteed emission cap of, say, a 20% reduction by 2020, with a 30% reduction if other major emitters get on board could offer the best of both worlds. It would mean that Australia acts as a responsible world citizen. It would mean that Australia had the regulatory systems in place to lower its emissions. And it would provide an incentive in negotiations to encourage other countries to reduce their own emissions.

UPDATE (as of 8:00pm)

News.com.au is reporting that the Liberal party has announced that they will support the implementation of an Emissions Trading Scheme, regardless of what other countries decide:

“We are of the view that Australia must act, that we must proceed to implement an emissions trading scheme,” Dr Nelson said.

He went on to say that the caps and prices of carbon could be set differently, depending on what actions other nations take - much like this post suggests above.

This might be overly optimistic, but the stage seems set for both parties to work constructively to deliver a well-designed and effective ETS. The Liberal Party now seem to be calling, reasonably enough, for Labor to share more detail on their plans.

“I am prepared to talk to (Prime Minister Kevin) Rudd about his legislation, but he is yet to provide Australians … with sufficient detail to allow us to make a responsible decision about it,” Dr Nelson said.

The Liberals were open to talking about the government’s plan to start emissions trading in 2010, he said.

Stay tuned for the next gripping installment!

Categories: current affairs, environment, media

Tags: climate change, ets, liberal