Low Impact

The various news web sites are now all carrying the news that Professor Ross Garnaut has released his draft report on Climate Change.

This is big news for Australia. While in opposition, the Labor Party commissioned Professor Garnaut to write this Review in order to report on how Australia would be affected by climate change, and the policy options to help combat it. With Professor Garnaut being a renowned economist, it was billed by some as Australia’s version of the Stern review.

The comparison is probably fair - not only do both reviews take an economic look at the consequences of climate change, but they are both similarly weighty at 600 pages for the Garnaut Review and 700 pages for the Stern Review (You’ll be pleased to know that the hard copies were printed on 80% recycled paper!). But the Garnaut Review obviously focuses on the impacts of climate change specifically to Australia. This includes modeling the repercussions of different levels of climate change, as well as possible policy solutions targeted to the Australian economy.

What immediately becomes clear (I haven’t read all 600 pages - I’m a fast reader, but not that fast!) is that the Australian economy stands to be greatly impacted if steps aren’t taken to combat climate change. Some of the predictions from the modeling, if no mitigation action is taken include:

• Average temperatures increasing by around 4 degrees across the continent by 2100.
• Rainfall decreasing by up to 20% by 2100 (and you thought the current drought was bad!)
• Increase in heatwave days - Canberra would go from 5 days a year currently to 32 days by 2100, and Darwin would go from 9 days to 312!
• The destruction of the Great Barrier Reef by 2050
• 92% decline in agricultural production in the Murray-Darling Basin by 2100

These are predictions based on no action being taken to combat climate change. The Review also includes modeling results based on various intermediate levels where some action is taken, but not enough to greatly limit greenhouse gas emissions. These models paint a slightly better picture than the one above, but still not a pretty one. It really brings home the urgency of taking action.

The Garnaut report goes on (in some detail) to discuss the potential shape of an Emissions Trading Scheme which could help Australia lower her greenhouse gas emissions. In broad terms, this involves setting a ceiling on how much carbon our economy produces, and letting industry bid for a share of this amount, through a tradeable permit system. There are a number of parameters that can control the operation of such a scheme - for instance, industries can be allocated some permits free, maximum prices can be set, or certain sectors of the economy can be completely exempted. The Review provides modeling to cover a variety of scenarios which we might cover further in a future post.

While big news in itself, the Garnaut Review forms one of many inputs that the Australian Government is taking in producing its Green Paper on an Emissions Trading Scheme due out at the end of the month. Given that this will provide some view as to the shape of Australia’s response to climate change, this Green Paper will be in for some keen scrutiny. Normally I find bureaucratic reports a fantastic way to battle insomnia, but this one might actually be a real page-turner!

But of course, facts and politics are uneasy bedfellows, so the fun is yet to really begin. Garnaut has called for bipartisanship on the issue - as he puts it:

“If you don’t have political bipartisanship then there’s more risks you’ll make arbitrary adjustments for political reasons”.

The press has played host to the recent battle over the Government and Opposition’s response to rising petrol prices - it seems too much to hope for that the political parties won’t take the opportunity to score political points over each other!

As I write this, the Garnaut web site is very slow - anyone would think this is a topical issue! But once things have settled down, you might want to download the draft report. The report is very readable - it doesn’t just discuss economic models, but goes through the science of climate change, the research to date and the specific impact on Australia. For Australian readers, this is reason enough to have a look at the report - finding information on how climate change will affect Australia can normally be a bit of a struggle.

Being informed of the issues that accompany climate change is a great way to see past the sound bites from all the groups involved (be they Labor, Liberal, industry or environmental), and make up your own mind. Of course, reading all 600 pages might seem a little daunting, especially with so much great entertainment on TV right now….actually, on the other hand, maybe this is just what the doctor ordered!

Categories: community, current affairs, energy, environment, green

Tags: climate change, emissions, garnaut, modelling, politics